Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.405383 0.467605 0.535242 0.614101 0.703391 0.801222 0.916396
2025-09-28 0.291527 0.374516 0.473627 0.600128 0.756652 0.943278 1.181897
2025-10-05 0.239015 0.332473 0.452040 0.614933 0.829582 1.101089 1.468574
2025-10-12 0.209423 0.310930 0.448268 0.645447 0.918605 1.280547 1.792637
2025-10-19 0.182943 0.287832 0.436947 0.661092 0.985378 1.432562 2.089624
2025-10-26 0.159706 0.265037 0.421709 0.667223 1.036545 1.564282 2.366088
2025-11-02 0.139180 0.242843 0.403689 0.665661 1.074129 1.677082 2.621411
2025-11-09 0.120609 0.220797 0.382646 0.656056 1.096972 1.767868 2.848649
2025-11-16 0.105173 0.201592 0.363439 0.646447 1.117502 1.854820 3.074071
2025-11-23 0.090158 0.180875 0.339027 0.625096 1.116147 1.906117 3.245778
2025-11-30 0.086064 0.179299 0.346986 0.658817 1.207675 2.110431 3.672751
2025-12-07 0.074994 0.163007 0.326923 0.641285 1.210163 2.168978 3.865678
2025-12-14 0.065174 0.147966 0.307751 0.623933 1.212347 2.228699 4.067690
2025-12-21 0.057049 0.135213 0.291442 0.610183 1.219708 2.297754 4.290589
2025-12-28 0.053069 0.130617 0.290428 0.625247 1.280730 2.463900 4.691534
2026-01-04 0.051050 0.130015 0.297300 0.656228 1.373801 2.692718 5.216623
2026-01-11 0.047772 0.126075 0.296766 0.672111 1.438842 2.874458 5.667582
2026-01-18 0.043995 0.120394 0.291843 0.678334 1.485120 3.024024 6.068060
2026-01-25 0.040013 0.113606 0.283675 0.676748 1.515265 3.144564 6.420847
2026-02-01 0.035883 0.105802 0.272296 0.666998 1.527661 3.231453 6.714582
2026-02-08 0.032213 0.098607 0.261451 0.657243 1.538984 3.316464 7.008946
2026-02-15 0.028241 0.089944 0.246069 0.635567 1.522904 3.345697 7.195662
2026-02-22 0.027791 0.091007 0.254483 0.669801 1.630738 3.630602 7.903135